Application of ARIMA model and BP neural network model in prediction of tuberculosis incidence in Gansu Province / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To investigate the predictive effect of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and back propagation neural network (BPNN)in the prediction of tuberculosis incidence in Gansu Province, and to select appropriate models to predict the incidence. Methods Based on the data of tuberculosis in Gansu Province from 1997 to 2017, the ARIMA time series model and BP neural network model were established to predict the incidence from 2018 to 2019, and the prediction accuracy and modeling effect of the two models were compared. Results For the incidence of tuberculosis in Gansu Province in 2018 and 2019, the ARIMA model predicted results were 55.1075, 54.5373, MSE=92.24, MAE=7.5313, MAPE=9.26%; BP neural network model predicted results were 62.0132, 73.4460, MSE= 9.6575, MAE = 1.1449, MAPE = 1.68%. Conclusions The BP neural network model has a better predictive effect on the incidence of tuberculosis in Gansu Province, and it shows that the incidence of tuberculosis in Gansu Province will increase slightly from 2018 to 2019.

Current Situation of TCM Human Resources Distribution and Equity Research in China / 中国中医药信息杂志

Objective To discuss existing problems in talent team construction; To provide evidence for the government to enact proper strategies based on the analysis of the current situation of TCM practitioners (assistants) distribution in China from quantity, quality and distribution equity. Methods The research is studied through conducting a descriptive analysis of TCM practitioners (assistants) from quantity, education, job titles, ages, and other basic conditions and changes. Gini coefficient was used to evaluate the distribution of TCM practitioners (assistants). Results The quantity of TCM practitioners (assistants) increased by 53.7% from 2010 to 2015. Concerning the quality of personnel, the ratio of the personnel with bachelors degree or above increased from 38.6% to 44.2%, and a slight increase was observed with the personnel with senior title. In terms of age structure, the proportion of the age of TCM practitioners (assistants) under 25 years old, 35 to 59 years old decreased, and the proportion of the age of TCM practitioners (assistants) above 60 years old, 25 to 34 years old increased. From the perspective of equity, there is a difference between the provincial-level administration of human resources distribution. The Gini coefficient as per population distribution was around 0.1, which indicated good equity. From the geographical area configuration, the Gini coefficient was approximately 0.58, which showed high level of disparity. Conclusion There are problems of insufficient quantity, low quality and distribution disparity among regions in TCM practitioners (assistant) in China.